Publications

2022

Brown, C., Seo, B., Alexander, P., Burton, V., Chacón-Montalván, E., Dunford, R., Harrison, P., Prestele, R., Robinson, E., Rounsevell, M., Merkle, M., Harrison, P., Prestele, R., Robinson, E., Rounsevell, M., 2022. Agent-based modelling of alternative futures in the British land use system. Earth’s Future, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF002905

Henry, R., Arneth, A., Jung, M., Rabin, R.S. Rounsevell, M.D.A., Warren, F. & Alexander, P. Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios. Nature Sustainability, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41893-021-00844-x

Maire, J., Alexander, P., Anthoni, P., Huntingford, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Rabin, S., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A New Modelling Approach to Adaptation-Mitigation in the Land System. Climate Adaptation Modelling, pp 133-140, http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-86211-4_16

Maire, J., Sattar, A., Henry, R., Warren, F., Merkle, M., Rounsevell, M., Alexander, P., 2022. How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health environmental sustainability and food affordability. Lancet Planetary Healthhttps://doi.org/10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00144-9

Merkle, M., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Seo, B., Harrison, P.A., Harmáčková, Z. V, Pedde, S., Rounsevell, M., Harrison, P.A., 2022. Downscaling population and urban land use for socio ‑ economic scenarios in the UK. Reg. Environ. Chang. 1–14. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-01963-7

 

2021

Brown, C., Holman, I. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2021). How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land-use change. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 211–231, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-12-211-2021

Brown, C. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2021). How can social-ecological system models simulate the emergence of social-ecological crises? People and Nature, 3, 88–103. https://doi:10.1002/pan3.10167

Merkle, M., Moran, D., Warren, F., Alexander, P., 2021. How does market power affect the resilience of food supply? Glob. Food Sec. 30, 100556. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2021.100556

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Arneth, A., Brown, C., Cheung, W.W.L., Gimenez, O., Holman, I., Leadley, P., Luján, C., Mahevas, S., Maréchaux, I., Pélissier, R., Verburg, P.H. Vieilledent, G., Wintle, B.A. & Shin, Y-J. (2021). Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making. One Earth, 4, 967-985, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.06.003

Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, R. & Herold, M. (2021). Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated. Nature Communications, 12, 2501, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22702-2

 

2020

Enquist, B.J., Abraham, A.J., Harfoot, M.B., Malhi, Y. and Doughty, C.E. (2020). The megabiota are disproportionately important for biosphere functioning. Nature Communications, 11(1), pp.1-11.

Hoeks, S., Huijbregts, M.A., Busana, M., Harfoot, M.B., Svenning, J.C. and Santini, L., (2020). Mechanistic insights into the role of large carnivores for ecosystem structure and functioning. Ecography, 43(12), 1752-1763.

Rabin, S.S., Alexander, P., Henry, R., Anthoni, P., Pugh, T.A.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Arneth, A. (2020). Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators. Earth System Dynamics, 11, 357–376, https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-11-357-2020

 

2019

Brown, C., Seo, B., & Rounsevell, M. (2019). Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 809-845. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-809-2019

Henry, R., Arneth, A., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Alexander, P. (2019). The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity. Global Environmental Change, 58, 101956, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2019.101956

Holzhauer, S., Brown, C., & Rounsevell, M. (2019). Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change. Regional Environmental Change, 19(3), 733–746. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1424-5

 

2018

Alexander, P., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Henry, R., Pugh, T.A.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Arneth, A. (2018). Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global Change Biology, 24(7), 2791-2809, https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.14110

Henry, R.C., Engström, E., Olin, S., Alexander, P., Arneth, A. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2018). Food supply and bioenergy production within the planetary boundary of global cropland area. PlosOne, 13(3), e0194695. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0194695

Robinson, D.T., Di Vittorio, A., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Barton, M., Brown, D.G., Kettner, A., Lemmen, C., O'Neill, B.C., Janssen, M., Pugh, T.A.M., Rabin, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Syvitski, J.P., Ullah, I., Verburg, P.H. (2018). Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), 895-914

 

2017

Blanco, V., Holzhauer, S., Brown, C., Lagergren, F., Vulturius, G., Lindeskog, M., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2017). The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden. Ecosystem Services, 23, 174–208. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoser.2016.12.003

Blanco, V., Holzhauer, S., Brown, C., Vulturius, G. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2017). The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector. Journal of Environmental Management, 196, 36-47

Brown, C., Alexander, P., Holzhauer, S. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2017). Behavioural models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors. WIREs Climate Change, 8, e448. https://doi:10.1002/wcc.448

 

2016

Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Silva, F.B.E., Brown, C., Butler, A., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J., Dunford, R., Engström, K., Fujimori, S., Harrison, P., Hasegawa, T., Holzhauer, S., Humpenöder, F., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Jain, A., Kyle, P., Lavalle, C., Lenton, T., Liu, J., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Powell, T., Sands, R., Schaldach, R., Stehfest, E., Steinbuks, J., Tabeau, A., Meijl, H. van, Wise, M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016). Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Global Change Biology, https://doi10.1111gcb.1344

Bartlett, L., T. Newbold, D. Tittensor, D. Purves & M. Harfoot, (2016) Ecosystem responses to patterns of land use in a General Ecosystem Model, in review, Proc. Roy. Soc. B, https://doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.1027.

Brown, C., Holzhauer, S., Metzger, M. J., Paterson, J. S., & Rounsevell, M. (2016). Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems. Regional Environmental Change, 1–15. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-016-0999-y

Brown, C., Brown, K. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016) A philosophical case for process-based modelling of land use change. Modelling Earth Systems and Environment 2(2), 1-12

Engström, K., Olin, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Brogaard, S., van Vuuren, D.P., Alexander, P., Murray-Rust, D. & Arneth, A. (2016a). Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework. Earth System Dynamics, 7, 893-915

Engström, K., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Murray-Rust, D., Hardacre, C., Alexander, P., Cui, X., Palmer, P.I., Arneth, A. (2016b) Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 75, 212-229.

Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D., Engstrom, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenoder, F., Jain, A., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R., Schaldach, R., Schungel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., van Vilet, J. & Verburg, P. (2016). Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison. Global Change Biology, 22, 3967-3983 https://doi:10.1111/gcb.13337

 

2015

Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dislich, C., Dodson, J.R., Engstrom, K. & Moran, D. (2015). Drivers for global agricultural land use change: the nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy. Global Environmental Change, 35, 138-147 https://doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011

Blanco, V., Brown, C., & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Characterising forest owners through their objectives, attributes and management strategies. European Journal of Forest Research. 134, 1027-1041. https://doi:10.1007/s10342-015-0907-x

Olin, S., et al., 2015. Modelling the response of yields and tissue C:N to changes in atmospheric CO2 and N management in the main wheat regions of western Europe. Biogeosciences 12, 2489-2515, https://doi:10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015.

 

2014

Arneth, A., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Brown, C. (2014). Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment. Nature Climate Change, 4, 550–557. https://doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2250

Brown, C., Murray-Rust, D., Van Vliet, J., Alam, S. J., Verburg, P. H., & Rounsevell, M. D. (2014). Experiments in globalisation, food security and land use decision making. PLoS ONE, 9(12), 1–24. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0114213

Harfoot, M. B. J. et al. (2014), Emergent patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model. PLoS Biology, https://doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001841

Murray-Rust, D., Brown, C., van Vliet, J., Alam, S. J., Robinson, D. T., Verburg, P. H., & Rounsevell, M. (2014). Combining agent functional types, capitals and services to model land use dynamics. Environmental Modelling and Software, 59, 187–201. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.05.019

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Arneth, A., Alexander, P., Brown, D.G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ellis, E., Finnigan, J., Galvin, K., Grigg, N., Harman, I., Lennox, J., Magliocca, N., Parker, D.C., O’Neill, B.C., Verburg, P.H. and Young, O. (2014). Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system. Earth System Dynamics, 5, 117-137

Smith, B., et al., 2014. Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model. Biogeosciences 11, 2027-2054, https://doi:10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014.

 

2013

Hardacre, C. J., Palmer, P. I., Baumanns, K., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Murray-Rust, D. (2013). Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land use change in response to growing food needs, Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13, 5451-5472

Lindeskog, M., et al., 2013. Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa. Earth System Dynamics 4, 385-407, https://doi:10.5194/esd-4-385-2013.

Purves, D. W., J. Scharlemann, M. Harfoot, T. Newbold, D. P. Tittensor, J. Hutton, S. Emmott (2013) Time to model all life on Earth, Nature, 493, 295-297.

 

2012

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Robinson, D. and Murray-Rust, D. (2012). From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 367, 259-269


2010

Huntingford, C., Booth, B. B. B., Sitch, S., Gedney, N., Lowe, J. A., Liddicoat, S. K., Mercado, L. M., Best, M. J., Weedon, G. P., Fisher, R. A., Lomas, M. R., Good, P., Zelazowski, P., Everitt, A. C., Spessa, A. C., and Jones, C. D. (2010). IMOGEN: an intermediate complexity model to evaluate terrestrial impacts of a changing climate, Geosci. Model Dev., 3, 679–687, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-3-679-2010