Brownlie, W.J., Alexander, P., Maslin, M., Cañedo-Argüelles, M., Sutton, M.A., Spears, B.M., 2024. Global food security threatened by potassium neglect. Nature Food.

Vonderschmidt, A., Arendarczyk, B., Jaacks, L.M., Bellows, A.L., Alexander, P., 2024. Analysis combining the multiple FAO food balance sheet datasets needs careful treatment. The Lancet Planetary Health 8, e69–e71.



Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Henry, R., Maire, J., Rabin, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., 2023. High energy and fertilizer prices are more damaging than food export curtailment from Ukraine and Russia for food prices , health and the environment.

Alexander, P., Henry, R., Rabin, S. Arneth, A. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2023). Mapping the Shared Socio-economic Pathways onto the Nature Futures Framework at the global scale. Sustainability Science,

Arneth A, Leadley, P., Claudet, J., Coll, M., Rondinini, C., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Shin, Y., Alexander, P., Fuchs, R. 2023. Making protected areas effective for biodiversity, climate and food. Global Change Biology 1–12

Brown, C., Millington, J.D., & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2023). Assessing the quality of land system models: moving from valibration to evaludation. Socio-Environmental Systems Modelling, 5, 18434, doi:10.18174/sesmo.18434

Day, S., Alexander, P., Maslin, M. 2023. Energy decarbonization threatens food security by reducing the availability of cheap sulfur. Nature Food

Perkins, O., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Brown, C., Millington, J.D.A., Rounsevell, M., 2023. Toward quantification of the feasible potential of land-based carbon dioxide removal. One Earth 6, 1638–1651.

Saxena, A., Brown, C., Arneth, A. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2023). Modelling the global photovoltaic potential on land and its sensitivity to climate change. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 104017,   

Staccione, A., Brown, C., Arneth, A., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Hrast Essenfelder, A., Seo, B. & Mysiak, J. (2023). Exploring the effects of Protected Area Networks on the European land system. Journal of Environmental Management, 337, 117741,



Brown, C., Seo, B., Alexander, P., Burton, V., Chacón-Montalván, E., Dunford, R., Harrison, P., Prestele, R., Robinson, E., Rounsevell, M., Merkle, M., Harrison, P., Prestele, R., Robinson, E., Rounsevell, M., 2022. Agent-based modelling of alternative futures in the British land use system. Earth’s Future,

Henry, R., Arneth, A., Jung, M., Rabin, R.S. Rounsevell, M.D.A., Warren, F. & Alexander, P. Global and regional health and food security under strict conservation scenarios. Nature Sustainability,

Maire, J., Alexander, P., Anthoni, P., Huntingford, C., Pugh, T.A.M., Rabin, S., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A New Modelling Approach to Adaptation-Mitigation in the Land System. Climate Adaptation Modelling, pp 133-140,

Maire, J., Sattar, A., Henry, R., Warren, F., Merkle, M., Rounsevell, M., Alexander, P., 2022. How different COVID-19 recovery paths affect human health environmental sustainability and food affordability. Lancet Planetary Health

Merkle, M., Alexander, P., Brown, C., Seo, B., Harrison, P.A., Harmáčková, Z. V, Pedde, S., Rounsevell, M., Harrison, P.A., 2022. Downscaling population and urban land use for socio ‑ economic scenarios in the UK. Reg. Environ. Chang. 1–14.



Brown, C., Holman, I. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2021). How modelling paradigms affect simulated future land-use change. Earth System Dynamics, 12, 211–231,

Brown, C. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2021). How can social-ecological system models simulate the emergence of social-ecological crises? People and Nature, 3, 88–103. https://doi:10.1002/pan3.10167

Merkle, M., Moran, D., Warren, F., Alexander, P., 2021. How does market power affect the resilience of food supply? Glob. Food Sec. 30, 100556.

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Arneth, A., Brown, C., Cheung, W.W.L., Gimenez, O., Holman, I., Leadley, P., Luján, C., Mahevas, S., Maréchaux, I., Pélissier, R., Verburg, P.H. Vieilledent, G., Wintle, B.A. & Shin, Y-J. (2021). Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making. One Earth, 4, 967-985,

Winkler, K., Fuchs, R., Rounsevell, R. & Herold, M. (2021). Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated. Nature Communications, 12, 2501,



Enquist, B.J., Abraham, A.J., Harfoot, M.B., Malhi, Y. and Doughty, C.E. (2020). The megabiota are disproportionately important for biosphere functioning. Nature Communications, 11(1), pp.1-11.

Hoeks, S., Huijbregts, M.A., Busana, M., Harfoot, M.B., Svenning, J.C. and Santini, L., (2020). Mechanistic insights into the role of large carnivores for ecosystem structure and functioning. Ecography, 43(12), 1752-1763.

Rabin, S.S., Alexander, P., Henry, R., Anthoni, P., Pugh, T.A.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Arneth, A. (2020). Impacts of future agricultural change on ecosystem service indicators. Earth System Dynamics, 11, 357–376,



Brown, C., Seo, B., & Rounsevell, M. (2019). Societal breakdown as an emergent property of large-scale behavioural models of land use change. Earth System Dynamics, 10, 809-845.

Henry, R., Arneth, A., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Alexander, P. (2019). The role of global dietary transitions for safeguarding biodiversity. Global Environmental Change, 58, 101956,

Holzhauer, S., Brown, C., & Rounsevell, M. (2019). Modelling dynamic effects of multi-scale institutions on land use change. Regional Environmental Change, 19(3), 733–746.



Alexander, P., Rabin, S., Anthoni, P., Henry, R., Pugh, T.A.M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Arneth, A. (2018). Adaptation of global land use and management intensity to changes in climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide. Global Change Biology, 24(7), 2791-2809,

Henry, R.C., Engström, E., Olin, S., Alexander, P., Arneth, A. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2018). Food supply and bioenergy production within the planetary boundary of global cropland area. PlosOne, 13(3), e0194695.

Robinson, D.T., Di Vittorio, A., Alexander, P., Arneth, A., Barton, M., Brown, D.G., Kettner, A., Lemmen, C., O'Neill, B.C., Janssen, M., Pugh, T.A.M., Rabin, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Syvitski, J.P., Ullah, I., Verburg, P.H. (2018). Modelling feedbacks between human and natural processes in the land system. Earth System Dynamics, 9(2), 895-914



Blanco, V., Holzhauer, S., Brown, C., Lagergren, F., Vulturius, G., Lindeskog, M., & Rounsevell, M. D. A. (2017). The effect of forest owner decision-making, climatic change and societal demands on land-use change and ecosystem service provision in Sweden. Ecosystem Services, 23, 174–208.

Blanco, V., Holzhauer, S., Brown, C., Vulturius, G. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2017). The importance of socio-ecological system dynamics in understanding adaptation to global change in the forestry sector. Journal of Environmental Management, 196, 36-47

Brown, C., Alexander, P., Holzhauer, S. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2017). Behavioural models of climate change adaptation and mitigation in land-based sectors. WIREs Climate Change, 8, e448. https://doi:10.1002/wcc.448



Alexander, P., Prestele, R., Verburg, P., Arneth, A., Baranzelli, C., Silva, F.B.E., Brown, C., Butler, A., Dendoncker, N., Doelman, J., Dunford, R., Engström, K., Fujimori, S., Harrison, P., Hasegawa, T., Holzhauer, S., Humpenöder, F., Jacobs-Crisioni, C., Jain, A., Kyle, P., Lavalle, C., Lenton, T., Liu, J., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Powell, T., Sands, R., Schaldach, R., Stehfest, E., Steinbuks, J., Tabeau, A., Meijl, H. van, Wise, M., Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016). Assessing uncertainties in land cover projections. Global Change Biology, https://doi10.1111gcb.1344

Bartlett, L., T. Newbold, D. Tittensor, D. Purves & M. Harfoot, (2016) Ecosystem responses to patterns of land use in a General Ecosystem Model, in review, Proc. Roy. Soc. B, https://doi:10.1098/rspb.2016.1027.

Brown, C., Holzhauer, S., Metzger, M. J., Paterson, J. S., & Rounsevell, M. (2016). Land managers’ behaviours modulate pathways to visions of future land systems. Regional Environmental Change, 1–15.

Brown, C., Brown, K. & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2016) A philosophical case for process-based modelling of land use change. Modelling Earth Systems and Environment 2(2), 1-12

Engström, K., Olin, S., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Brogaard, S., van Vuuren, D.P., Alexander, P., Murray-Rust, D. & Arneth, A. (2016a). Assessing uncertainties in global cropland futures using a conditional probabilistic modelling framework. Earth System Dynamics, 7, 893-915

Engström, K., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Murray-Rust, D., Hardacre, C., Alexander, P., Cui, X., Palmer, P.I., Arneth, A. (2016b) Applying Occam's razor to global agricultural land use change. Environmental Modelling & Software, 75, 212-229.

Prestele, R., Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M., Arneth, A., Calvin, K., Doelman, J., Eitelberg, D., Engstrom, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Humpenoder, F., Jain, A., Krisztin, T., Kyle, P., Meiyappan, P., Popp, A., Sands, R., Schaldach, R., Schungel, J., Stehfest, E., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., van Vilet, J. & Verburg, P. (2016). Hotspots of uncertainty in land use and land cover change projections: a global scale model comparison. Global Change Biology, 22, 3967-3983 https://doi:10.1111/gcb.13337



Alexander, P., Rounsevell, M.D.A., Dislich, C., Dodson, J.R., Engstrom, K. & Moran, D. (2015). Drivers for global agricultural land use change: the nexus of diet, population, yield and bioenergy. Global Environmental Change, 35, 138-147 https://doi:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.08.011

Blanco, V., Brown, C., & Rounsevell, M.D.A. (2015). Characterising forest owners through their objectives, attributes and management strategies. European Journal of Forest Research. 134, 1027-1041. https://doi:10.1007/s10342-015-0907-x

Olin, S., et al., 2015. Modelling the response of yields and tissue C:N to changes in atmospheric CO2 and N management in the main wheat regions of western Europe. Biogeosciences 12, 2489-2515, https://doi:10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015.



Arneth, A., Rounsevell, M.D.A. & Brown, C. (2014). Global models of human decision-making for land-based mitigation and adaptation assessment. Nature Climate Change, 4, 550–557. https://doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2250

Brown, C., Murray-Rust, D., Van Vliet, J., Alam, S. J., Verburg, P. H., & Rounsevell, M. D. (2014). Experiments in globalisation, food security and land use decision making. PLoS ONE, 9(12), 1–24.

Harfoot, M. B. J. et al. (2014), Emergent patterns of ecosystem structure and function from a mechanistic general ecosystem model. PLoS Biology, https://doi:10.1371/journal.pbio.1001841

Murray-Rust, D., Brown, C., van Vliet, J., Alam, S. J., Robinson, D. T., Verburg, P. H., & Rounsevell, M. (2014). Combining agent functional types, capitals and services to model land use dynamics. Environmental Modelling and Software, 59, 187–201.

Rounsevell, M.D.A., Arneth, A., Alexander, P., Brown, D.G., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Ellis, E., Finnigan, J., Galvin, K., Grigg, N., Harman, I., Lennox, J., Magliocca, N., Parker, D.C., O’Neill, B.C., Verburg, P.H. and Young, O. (2014). Towards decision-based global land use models for improved understanding of the Earth system. Earth System Dynamics, 5, 117-137

Smith, B., et al., 2014. Implications of incorporating N cycling and N limitations on primary production in an individual-based dynamic vegetation model. Biogeosciences 11, 2027-2054, https://doi:10.5194/bg-11-2027-2014.



Hardacre, C. J., Palmer, P. I., Baumanns, K., Rounsevell, M.D.A. and Murray-Rust, D. (2013). Probabilistic estimation of future emissions of isoprene and surface oxidant chemistry associated with land use change in response to growing food needs, Atmospheric Chemistry & Physics, 13, 5451-5472

Lindeskog, M., et al., 2013. Implications of accounting for land use in simulations of ecosystem carbon cycling in Africa. Earth System Dynamics 4, 385-407, https://doi:10.5194/esd-4-385-2013.

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Rounsevell, M.D.A., Robinson, D. and Murray-Rust, D. (2012). From actors to agents in socio-ecological systems models. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, 367, 259-269


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